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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 64

Carolina Panthers 14 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 10-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to MIA 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.77 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 64, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 22, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model