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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 54

Miami Dolphins 35 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 16-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to CAR 8, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-20-J.Bethel.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.85 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model