Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 60

Carolina Panthers 14 – Miami Dolphins 35

(4:57) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 88-T.Marshall [15-J.Phillips].

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

What Happened

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.48 EP
67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 60, worth -3.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.68 EP