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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 69

Carolina Panthers 21 – Miami Dolphins 42

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -0.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 27, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model