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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 42

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 16-J.Scott punts 30 yards to DAL 12, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-45-T.Tuipulotu.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.81 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 42, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model