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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 87

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to LAC 32, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.71 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 87, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 45, worth -2.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model