Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 54

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

(1:09) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to DAL 14, Center-47-J.Harris. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 29 for 15 yards (47-J.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.14 EP
71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 54, worth -2.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model