Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 95

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

(6:22) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to LAC 39, Center-44-T.Sieg. 12-D.Davis to DAL 49 for 12 yards (46-M.Jefferson).

The Three Options

GO -3.67 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.46 EP
65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 95, worth -5.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model