Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 70

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to DAL 21, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-47-J.Harris. Los Angeles Chargers challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to DAL 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-J.Tolbert MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga at DAL 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.17 EP
64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 70, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model