4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 1

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(7:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 7-G.Everett for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.69 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 1, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model