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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 21

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 17-B.Aubrey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +3.17 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.26 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model