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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 1 at the 18
Dallas Cowboys 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7
What Actually Happened
(6:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott right tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+2.79 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.74 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.94 EP
KICK
+1.48 EP
- 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
- 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT
-0.31 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
