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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 47

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to LAC 2, Center-44-T.Sieg, downed by DAL-83-J.Brooks.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.67 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model