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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to JAX 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-45-E.Speed.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 25, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP