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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 38

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 21

What Actually Happened

(:11) 7-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.27 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 38, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 47, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model