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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 75

Jacksonville Jaguars 21 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(14:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to IND 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 34 for 8 yards (20-D.Thomas). PENALTY on IND-41-G.Stuard, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 75, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 32, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model