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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 30

Jacksonville Jaguars 21 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 10-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.15 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP