Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 31

(3:15) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short middle to 14-A.Pierce to IND 42 for 14 yards (31-Dari.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 72, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.51 EP