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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 2

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 31

What Actually Happened

(14:19) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 1-J.Downs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.84 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 2, worth +0.40 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model