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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 15

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 31

What Actually Happened

(11:13) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep left intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 31-Dari.Williams at JAX -1. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.25 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model