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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 85

Jacksonville Jaguars 31 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 9-L.Cooke punts 62 yards to IND 23, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 28 for 5 yards (20-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.42 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 85, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 43, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model