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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 31

Jacksonville Jaguars 31 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(4:55) 10-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.06 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model