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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 82

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 34

What Actually Happened

(3:27) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete deep middle to 86-W.Mallory [95-R.Robertson-Harris].

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 82, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 40, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.38 EP