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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Indianapolis Colts
4th & 10 at the 53
Indianapolis Colts 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 37
What Actually Happened
(1:51) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete deep right to 3-A.Rodgers.
The Three Options
GO
+0.34 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.25 EP
- 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 53, worth -0.56 EP
KICK
+0.12 EP
- 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
- 80% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT
-0.25 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.25 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
