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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 70

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to NE 13, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 27-M.Bryant to NE 27 for 14 yards (22-A.Abdullah).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.03 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 28, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model