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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 12

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 2-D.Carlson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model