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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 73

New England Patriots 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 17-B.Baringer punts 51 yards to LV 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 3-D.Carter to LV 35 for 13 yards (49-J.Cardona). LV-37-T.Hall was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model