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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 6

Las Vegas Raiders 16 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.06 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 6, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model