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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 6

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.51 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 6, worth +0.52 EP
KICK +2.41 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP