Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 74

New England Patriots 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

(6:05) 17-B.Baringer punts 34 yards to LV 40, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model