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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 44

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 4-M.Dickson punts 31 yards to CIN 13, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-89-W.Dissly.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.68 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 44, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model