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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 67

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(3:39) 10-B.Robbins punts 46 yards to SEA 21, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-84-M.Wilcox.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.67 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 67, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 25, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP