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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 56

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 10-B.Robbins punts 40 yards to SEA 16, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.14 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 56, worth -2.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP