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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 55

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(9:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to CIN 14, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.47 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -2.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP