Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 74

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Seattle Seahawks 13

(6:24) 10-B.Robbins punts 38 yards to SEA 36, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.64 EP
70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 74, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model