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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Seattle Seahawks
4th & 6 at the 6
Seattle Seahawks 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 17
What Actually Happened
(2:08) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at CIN 14 for -8 yards (94-S.Hubbard).
The Three Options
GO
+1.90 EP
What Happened
-
35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
- 65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 6, worth -0.34 EP
KICK
+1.99 EP
Model's Pick
- 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT
-0.39 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
