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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 82

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 10-B.Robbins punts 45 yards to SEA 37, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 40 for 3 yards (26-T.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.66 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 82, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 40, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model