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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 9

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Parkinson (92-B.Hill) [92-B.Hill].

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +5.26 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 9, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.20 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.98 EP