Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 52

Cleveland Browns 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(14:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to SF 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 3-R.McCloud to SF 17 for no gain (20-P.Strong).

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.18 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.36 EP

KICK -1.31 EP

20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
80% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.28 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model