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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 7

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(7:57) 4-J.Moody 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.75 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 7, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP