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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 40

Cleveland Browns 13 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(6:52) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass short right to 18-Dav.Bell to SF 34 for 6 yards (7-C.Ward).

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.43 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model