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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 11

Cleveland Browns 16 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:43) 7-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.12 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model