Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 58 yards to CLE 8, Center-46-T.Pepper. 16-J.Darden to CLE 19 for 11 yards (59-C.Robinson). PENALTY on SF-20-A.Thomas, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 19.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.16 EP
69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 66, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model