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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 52

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.79 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 52, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP