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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 45

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(12:25) 12-B.Gillikin punts 29 yards to SEA 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-87-G.Swaim. PENALTY on SEA-58-D.Hall, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at SEA 16.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.13 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.26 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP