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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 3

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 5-J.Myers 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +3.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.04 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 3, worth +0.36 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP