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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 82

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(14:51) 12-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to SEA 24, Center-46-A.Brewer. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 30 for 6 yards (97-C.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.86 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 82, worth -4.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 40, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model