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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 16

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.69 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 16, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model