Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 78

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Arizona Cardinals 10

(9:40) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to ARI 33, Center-41-C.Stoll. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 33 for no gain (32-Je.Reed).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.49 EP
65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 78, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model