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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 82

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 12-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to SEA 34, Center-46-A.Brewer. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 39 for 5 yards (51-K.Barnes, 45-D.Gardeck).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.56 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 82, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 40, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model